Scenarios of Demographic Development of Rural Territories of the Central Black Earth Regions under the Conditions of a Special Military Operation

Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31171/vlast.v31i3.9656
  • Evgeniy Viktorovich Reutov Belgorod State National Research University reutovevg@mail.ru
    Elibrary Author_id 420563
  • Viktor Mikhailovich Zakharov Belgorod State National Research University zakharov@bsu.edu.ru
  • Marina Nikolaevna Reutova Belgorod State National Research University reutova@bsu.edu.ru
    Elibrary Author_id 692572
  • Svetlana Anatolyevna Vangorodskaya Belgorod State National Research University Vangorodskaya@bsu.edu.ru
    Elibrary Author_id 284943
How to Cite
Reutov E.V., Zakharov V.M., Reutova M.N., Vangorodskaya S.A. Scenarios of Demographic Development of Rural Territories of the Central Black Earth Regions under the Conditions of a Special Military Operation. Vlast’ (The Authority). 2023. Vol. 31. No. 3. P. 192-198. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31171/vlast.v31i3.9656

Abstract

Based on the application of extrapolation methods and the method of expert assessments, the article substantiates forecast scenarios for the demographic development of rural areas in the regions of the Central Black Earth economic region. The optimistic scenario considers a moderately neutral depopulation with a gradual restoration of migration inflow and minimization of interregional differentiation. The baseline scenario includes moderate depopulation with focal risks and increased uncertainty. According to the pessimistic scenario, depopulation is expected to increase with the growth of inter-regional differentiation and migration outflow from rural areas. The main factor influencing the standard background of the demographic development of the studied areas is a special military operation in Ukraine, which is characterized by high associated risks and serious socio-economic consequences.
Keywords:
demographic development, demographic potential, forecast scenarios, special military operation (SMO)

Author Biographies

Evgeniy Viktorovich Reutov, Belgorod State National Research University
Cand.Sci. (Soc.), Associate Professor of the Chair of Social Technologies and Public Administration
Viktor Mikhailovich Zakharov, Belgorod State National Research University
Dr.Sci. (Soc.), Professor of the Chair of Social Technologies and Public Administration
Marina Nikolaevna Reutova, Belgorod State National Research University
Cand.Sci. (Soc.), Associate Professor of the Chair of Social Technologies and Public Service
Svetlana Anatolyevna Vangorodskaya, Belgorod State National Research University
Dr. Sci. (Soc.), Professor of the Chair of Social Technologies and Public Administration

References

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Article

Received: 12.07.2023

Citation Formats
Other cite formats:

APA
Reutov, E. V., Zakharov, V. M., Reutova, M. N., & Vangorodskaya, S. A. (2023). Scenarios of Demographic Development of Rural Territories of the Central Black Earth Regions under the Conditions of a Special Military Operation. Vlast’ (The Authority), 31(3), 192-198. https://doi.org/10.31171/vlast.v31i3.9656
Issue
Vol 31 No 3 (2023)
Section
SOCIOLOGY

Following the submission of the manuscript to the Publisher, the author binds oneself not to publish it somewhere else without permission of the Publisher.