Structural Demographic Waves of Russian Regions: Preliminary Analysis
Research Article
How to Cite
Rybakovsky O.L., Fadeeva T.A. Structural Demographic Waves of Russian Regions: Preliminary Analysis. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 2022. Vol. 18. No. 4. P. 425-438. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2022.18.4.1 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article shows how political, economic, environmental and other events, phenomena and processes (external factors) lead to sharp changes in the age structure of the population of the regions of Russia, creating structural waves, that is, steep changes in population by age. It is revealed how various components of the demographic balance (internal factors) in dynamics affect the perturbation and smoothing of age-related structural waves. Taking into account the experience of previous studies and on the basis of a large array of empirical data, the use of two generalizing meters of demographic structural waves of the regions of the Russian Federation is justified. The first indicator is the coefficient of unevenness of th7e age structure of the population regarding the structure of the calculated series of "Numbers living in a given age interval". The second indicator is a combination of two coefficients of structural differences (shifts) used in practice, A. Szalai and K. Gatev. The results of a comparative analysis of structural demographic waves in all regions of Russia for the last year before the start of the pandemic in 2019 are reflected. All regions of Russia are ranked according to the proposed coefficients of unevenness. Four main groups of territories have been identified from the regions according to the degree of unevenness of the age structure of the population. The main factors that caused this unevenness are revealed. The task of smoothing the structural demographic waves in the young population (0-45 years old) by building and implementing a time-emphasized and regionally accentuated concept of demographic policy in the field of fertility, interregional and international migration has been substantiated. This concept should be coordinated with the strategy of Russia's demographic development.
Keywords:
regions of Russia, demographic structural waves, coefficients of structural differences, factors of structural unevenness, сrests and pits of demographic structural waves, Numbers of people living in a given age interval, mortality, fertility and migration population
References
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14. Rybakovskii, O. L. Patterns and features of interregional migration relations of the Russian population over 50 years: [monografiya]. Moscow. FNISTs RAN. 2022. 471 p. DOI: 10.19181/monogr.978-5-89697-383-6.2021
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18. I.Fisher. Building indexes. Teaching about their varieties, tests and reliability. Moscow. TsSU USSR. 1928. 464 p. (in Russ.).
19. Rybakovskii L. L., Kozhevnikova N. I. The strategy of demographic development of Russia: its determinants and a centuries-old vector. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = The standard of living of the population of the regions of Russia. 2020;(164):9-20. DOI https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2020.16.4.1 (in Russ.).
2. Rybakovskiy O.L. Structural waves of the population of Russia and its regions: issues of assessment and comparison. Narodonaselenije = Population. 2022;(1):65-79. DOI:10.19181/population.2022.25.1.6. (In Russ.).
3. Agapova T.N. Methods of statistical study of the structure of complex systems and its changes. Moscow. Financials and statistics. 1996. 197 p. ISBN 5-279-01672-1 (in Russ.).
4. Gatev K. Statistical evaluation of differences between structures. Moscow. Statistika. 1979. 207 p. (in Russ.).
5. Tskhay L.A. Demographic waves in Uzbekistan (history, modernity and perspective). Demographic processes in the post-Soviet space. VI Ural demographic forum Ekaterinburg. Institute of Economics UB RAS. 2015;(1): 144-149 (In Russ.).
6. Arkhangel’skiy V.N. Regional and ethnic differences in the demographic potential of the gender and age structure of the population. Demographic potential of the EAEU countries: a collection of articles VIII of the Ural demographic forum. Ekaterinburg: Institute of Economics UB RAS. 2017;(1):51-57 (In Russ.).
7. Pirozhkov S.I., Safarova G.L. Age structure as a factor of population reproduction. Economic-mathematical research. Mathematical Models and Information Technologies. Saint Petersburg. Science. 2003;(3): 179-230. (In Russ.).
8. Zoidov Z.K Zoidov K.Kh., Ryazantsev S.V. Analysis and regulation of cyclical fluctuations of demographic processes in the CIS countries. Regional’nyye problemy preobrazovaniya ekonomiki = Regional problems of economic transformation. 2012;(4):589-604 (In Russ.).
9. Andreev E.M, Darskii L.E, Khar’kova T. L. Demographic History of Russia 1927-1959. Moscow: Informatika. 1998. 187 p. (in Russ.).
10. Rybakovskii L.L. The Great Patriotic War. Features. Human losses. Factors of victory. Moscow. Ekon-Inform. 2020. 251 p. ISBN 978-5-907233-69-0 (In Russ.).
11. Migration processes in Russia. Edited by. V.V. Lokosova i L.L. Rybakovskogo. Moscow. Ekon-inform. 2014. 383 p. ISBN 978-5-9506-1115-5 (in Russ).
12. Ravenstein Е. The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. V.52 (LII, Part 2, June 1889). P .214-301.
13. Topilin A.V. Migration of the population and the formation of labor resources in the USSR and in the post-Soviet space: trends and regulation. Moscow. Ekon-Inform. 2020. 479 p. ISBN 978-5-907233-44-7. (in Russ.).
14. Rybakovskii, O. L. Patterns and features of interregional migration relations of the Russian population over 50 years: [monografiya]. Moscow. FNISTs RAN. 2022. 471 p. DOI: 10.19181/monogr.978-5-89697-383-6.2021
15. Kazinets L.S. Measuring structural shifts in the economy. Moscow. Ekonomika. 1969. 167 p. (in Russ.).
16. Zarova E. V., Koteneva T. V., Leontyeva T. I., et al. Regional statistics. Moscow. Moskovsky Publishing House. 2001. 380 p. ISBN 5–85167–035–5 (in Russ.).
17. Boyarskii A. Ya. Theoretical research on statistics. Collection of scientific works. Moscow. Statitiscs. 1974. 304 p. (in Russ.).
18. I.Fisher. Building indexes. Teaching about their varieties, tests and reliability. Moscow. TsSU USSR. 1928. 464 p. (in Russ.).
19. Rybakovskii L. L., Kozhevnikova N. I. The strategy of demographic development of Russia: its determinants and a centuries-old vector. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = The standard of living of the population of the regions of Russia. 2020;(164):9-20. DOI https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2020.16.4.1 (in Russ.).
Article
Received: 23.08.2022
Accepted: 22.12.2022
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Rybakovsky, O. L., & Fadeeva, T. A. (2022). Structural Demographic Waves of Russian Regions: Preliminary Analysis. Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia, 18(4), 425-438. https://doi.org/10.19181/lsprr.2022.18.4.1
Section
ECONOMIC RESEARCH
