Methodology for Researching the Factors of Managing Demographic Processes
Research Article
How to Cite
Gurba V.N., Lukichev P.N. Methodology for Researching the Factors of Managing Demographic Processes. Humanities of the South of Russia. 2021. Vol. 10. No. 3. P. 12-33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18522/2227-8656.2021.3.1
Abstract
Objective of the study is to analyze the purposefully changed factors which actions allow to control demographic dynamics.
The methodological basis of the research consists of a behaviorist methodological approach used in the analysis of gender differences in mortality and life expectancy, a systematic methodological approach used for a holistic representation of the factor relationship of social dynamics, methods of mathematical analysis that allow us to identify the most significant factor of influence on demographic processes.
Research results are presented: in proof of exponential population growth with a general civilizational trend of a decreasing growth rate, which gives the function logistical and sometimes parabolic character; in the conclusion about the interconnection of birth and death rates, their dependence on changes in the volume of the ecological niche of society, the connection of its expansion with the development of cultural forms of life activity of social individuals; in the impact on the natural movement of the population of state regulation of the economy aimed at achieving an annual increase in gross domestic product exceeding the critical value of the increase in the aggregate of consumed values.
Prospects of the study unfold in the form of an analysis of possible scenarios of demographic processes in countries entering the information stage of economic development with the replacement of the human places of the social structure with technical devices and changes in the ethnic composition of the population due to migration flows.
Keywords:
natural population movement, coefficients of the fertility and mortality, logistics function, gross domestic product, totality of consumed values, cultural forms of social individuals’ life activity
References
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14. Nuzhnyj, V. P., Savchuk, S. A. (2005). Alcohol mortality and toxicity of alcoholic beverages. Partnery i konkurenty, 5, 18-26; 6, 27-35; 7, 24-31; 8, 15-21. (in Russian).
15. Romanchuk, A. A. (2019). The hypothesis of the exit from the “Malthusian trapˮ as a result of advanced technological growth: a critical analysis. Koncept: filosofiya, religiya, kul`tura, 4 (12), 129-140. (in Russian).
16. Rybakovskij, L. L. (1984). Dynamics and factors of demographic development of the USSR in the second half of the twentieth century. Demograficheskoe razvitie SSSR v poslevoennyj period. Moscow. (in Russian).
17. Khalturina, D. A., Korotaev, A. V. (2006). Russian Cross: factors, mechanisms and ways to overcome the demographic crisis in Russia. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. (in Russian).
18. Volkov, Y. G., Lukichev, P. N., Khunagov, R. D., Kartashevich, E. V., Meskhi, B. B. (2020). Sociodemographic management indicators of the state of the economy (a case study of Russian statistics). International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 41 (1-2), 116-129.
19. Leon, D., Saburova, L., Tomkins, S., Andreev, E., Kiryanov, N., McKee, M., Shkolnikov, V.M. (2007). Hazardous alcohol drinking and premature mortality in Russia: a population based case-control study. Lancet, 369 (9578), 2001-2009.
20. Zaridze, D., Maximovitch, D., Lazarev, A., Igitov, V., Boroda, A., Boreham. J., Boyle, P., Peto, R., Boffetta, P. (2009). Alcohol poisoning is a main determinant of recent mortality trends in Russia: evidence from a detailed analysis of mortality statistics and autopsies. International Journal of Epidemiology, 38/1, 142-153.
2. Borisov, V. A. (1997, 2001). Demography. Moscow: NOTA BENE. (in Russian).
3. Gerasimenko, N. F, Zaridze, D. G., Sakharova, G. M. (2007). Health or tobacco: Facts and figures. «Zdorov`e ili tabak?». Materialy Foruma. Moscow. (in Russian).
4. Gerasimov, G. I., Dyatlov, A. V., Lukichev, P. N. (2019). Demographic dynamics and stages of economic growth. Nauchnyj rezul`tat. Sociologiya i upravlenie, 5, 3, 20-36. (in Russian).
5. Zaridze, D. G., Karpov, R. S., Kondrashova, S. M., Konobeevskaya, I. N., Men, T. H., Shain, A. A., Shikhman, S. M. (2002). Smoking ais the main cause of high mortality among Russians. Vestnik RAMN, 9, 40-45. (in Russian).
6. Alcohol abuse in the Russian Federation: socio-economic consequences and counteraction measures. (2009). Moscow: Obshhestvennaya palata Rossijskoj Federacii. (in Russian).
7. Kvasha, A. Ya. (1990). The price of victory. SSSR: Demograficheskij diagnoz. Мosсow. (in Russian).
8. The Constitution of the Russian Federation. Article 38. (in Russian).
9. Korotaev, A. V. (2018). Mathematical models of socio-demographic cycles and the way out of the Malthusian trap: some possible directions for further development. Rossiya: tendencii i perspektivy razvitiya. Ezhegodnik. Moscow: INION RAN, 13, 2. (in Russian).
10. Lukichev, P. N. (2017). General theory of social dynamics: Foundations and beginnings of analysis. Moscow: RUSCIENCE. (in Russian).
11. Lukichev, P. N. (2019). The specifics of demographic processes at the stages of economic Development. Aktual`nyje problemy vospitaniya v obrazovatel`noj srede: Materialy` Mezhdunar. mezhdiscipl. nauch.-prakt. konf., 4 apr. 2019 g., Novocherkassk. Novocherkassk: Lik, 157-163. (in Russian).
12. Maslennikova, G. Ya., Oganov, R. G. (2011). Medical and socio-economic damage caused by tobacco smoking in the Russian Federation: diseases of the circulatory system. Profilakticheskaya medicina, 3, 19-27. (in Russian).
13. Nemzov, A. V. (2009). Alcohol history of Russia: the latest period. Moscow: Librokom. (in Russian).
14. Nuzhnyj, V. P., Savchuk, S. A. (2005). Alcohol mortality and toxicity of alcoholic beverages. Partnery i konkurenty, 5, 18-26; 6, 27-35; 7, 24-31; 8, 15-21. (in Russian).
15. Romanchuk, A. A. (2019). The hypothesis of the exit from the “Malthusian trapˮ as a result of advanced technological growth: a critical analysis. Koncept: filosofiya, religiya, kul`tura, 4 (12), 129-140. (in Russian).
16. Rybakovskij, L. L. (1984). Dynamics and factors of demographic development of the USSR in the second half of the twentieth century. Demograficheskoe razvitie SSSR v poslevoennyj period. Moscow. (in Russian).
17. Khalturina, D. A., Korotaev, A. V. (2006). Russian Cross: factors, mechanisms and ways to overcome the demographic crisis in Russia. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. (in Russian).
18. Volkov, Y. G., Lukichev, P. N., Khunagov, R. D., Kartashevich, E. V., Meskhi, B. B. (2020). Sociodemographic management indicators of the state of the economy (a case study of Russian statistics). International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 41 (1-2), 116-129.
19. Leon, D., Saburova, L., Tomkins, S., Andreev, E., Kiryanov, N., McKee, M., Shkolnikov, V.M. (2007). Hazardous alcohol drinking and premature mortality in Russia: a population based case-control study. Lancet, 369 (9578), 2001-2009.
20. Zaridze, D., Maximovitch, D., Lazarev, A., Igitov, V., Boroda, A., Boreham. J., Boyle, P., Peto, R., Boffetta, P. (2009). Alcohol poisoning is a main determinant of recent mortality trends in Russia: evidence from a detailed analysis of mortality statistics and autopsies. International Journal of Epidemiology, 38/1, 142-153.
Article
Received: 10.03.2019
Accepted: 29.07.2021
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Gurba, V. N., & Lukichev, P. N. (2021). Methodology for Researching the Factors of Managing Demographic Processes. Humanities of the South of Russia, 10(3), 12-33. https://doi.org/10.18522/2227-8656.2021.3.1
Section
METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF SOCIO-HUMANITARIAN COGNITION
