Contradiction of Ethnopolitical Trends in the North Caucasus: Expert Evaluations
How to Cite
Avksent’ev V.A., Gritsenko G.D. Contradiction of Ethnopolitical Trends in the North Caucasus: Expert Evaluations. Humanities of the South of Russia. 2018. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 139-154. DOI: https://doi.org/10.23683/2227-8656.2018.3.11 (in Russ.).
Abstract
1. The article is devoted to the dynamics of the ethnopolitical issues in the North Caucasus. Special attention is given to the changes occurred in the country and the world after 2014 and in relation to the big electoral cycle (2016-2018). The paper is based on the results of an expert survey conducted in 2016-2017 in all territories of the North Caucasian Federal District. The article presents the detailed analysis of the results of the study, obtained by the expert evaluation method (Delphi method).2. The contrariety of the expert predictions of the dynamics of ethnopolitical tension at the end of the second decade of the 21st century is revealed. Despite the difficulties in the assessing the current state in the region, the experts managed to clarify and build the hierarchy of risks and threats. The experts name the following main risk factors: the preservation of ethno-clan structure in the republics of the North Caucasian Federal District; the decline of the socioeconomic status of the large part of the population in the North Caucasus; extremism "brought from the abroad". The most experts notice the destructive influence degree of the latter two factors on the the ethnopolitical process is decreasing. Besides, the factors that increased the negative influence are revealed: the destructiveness of the socio-economic and political activity of the national elites; the inefficiency of the national policy pursued in the region. However, the experts note that the severity of some conflict-generating factors (for example, religious radicalization of some population, especially young people) has reduced.3. Based on the results of the analysis, the authors come to the conclusion that the ethnopolitical situation in the region is characterized by a combination of both positive and negative trends with a certain increase of the stabilizing processes.The tendency of the change of the situationin the region to the moderately positive scenario may acquire the opposite direction at any time. Thus the monitoring of risk factors and analyzing the effectiveness of conflict management remains urgent.
Keywords:
North Caucasian Region, Delphi method, conflict-logical forecasts, factors of the dy-namics of the situation in theregion, ethnopolitical tensionrisks, contradictory expert opinions
References
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Rating of the socio-economic situation of the regions – 2017 (2017). RIA Rating, May 30. Available at: http:// www.riarating.ru/infografika/20170530/630063754.html.
North Caucasus: a chronicle of terror (2017). IA Regnum, May 19. Available at: https://regnum.ru/news/accidents/2277152.html.
Avksent’ev V.A., Gritsenko G.D. and Dmitriev A.V. (2011). South Russia in modern Russian politics: the view of a conflictologist. Rossija reformiruyushhayasya. No. 10. P. 552-561.
Avksente’v V.A., Gritsenko G.D. (2016). Ethnopolitical situation in North Caucasus: experts’ evaluation. Sociological studies. Vol. 1. P. 93-100.
Avksent'ev V.A., Gritsenko G.D., Lepilkina O.I., Shul'ga M.M. (2017). North Caucasus: unstable stability. Nauka Yuga Rossii. Vol. 13, No. 1. P. 115-125.
Avksent'ev V.A., Gritsenko G.D. (2017a). Factor Analysis of the Dynamics of the Regional Situation in the North Caucasus in Terms of Human Capital. Vlast'. No. 1. P. 33-45.
During the congress of the Nogai people a resolution was adopted (2017). Kavpolit. June 14. Available at: http:// kavpolit.com/articles/ v_hode_sezda_nogajskogo_naroda_prinjata_rezoljutsi-34299/.
Gornyakova E. (2018). In 2017 law enforcement officers prevented several terrorist attacks in the Stavropol region. SM-News. January 9. Available at: https://sm-news.ru/news/terrorizm/v-2017-godu-pravookhraniteli-predotvratili-neskolko-teraktov-na-stavropole/.
Medvedev D. (2009). Speech at Expanded Format Security Council Meeting, June 9. Available at: http:// en.kremlin.ru/events/ president/transcripts/4383.
"The Nogai steppe was divided between Stavropol region, Chechnya and Dagestan". Why do the Nogai do not see their future as a part of Dagestan? (2017). On Kavkaz, June 22. Available at: https://onkavkaz.com/ articles/4024-nogaiskuyu-step-razdelili-mezhdu-stavropolem-chechnei-i-dagestanom-pochemu-nogaicy-ne-vidjat-sv.html.
In Stavropol Patrushev will discuss the struggle against the ideology of terrorism (2017). TASS – Russian News Agency. April 19. Available at: http://tass.ru/politika/4192534.
Putin V. (2018) Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, March 1. Available at: http: //en.kremlin.ru/events/president/ news/56957.
Rating of the socio-economic situation of the regions – 2017 (2017). RIA Rating, May 30. Available at: http:// www.riarating.ru/infografika/20170530/630063754.html.
North Caucasus: a chronicle of terror (2017). IA Regnum, May 19. Available at: https://regnum.ru/news/accidents/2277152.html.
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Avksent’ev, V. A., & Gritsenko, G. D. (2018). Contradiction of Ethnopolitical Trends in the North Caucasus: Expert Evaluations. Humanities of the South of Russia, 7(3), 139-154. https://doi.org/10.23683/2227-8656.2018.3.11
Section
ETHNOPOLITICAL PROCESSES IN THE SOUTH OF RUSSIA
